Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
