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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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