Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
